The Big 12 power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
And just like that, the first month of the season is gone. Done. Over. It was stocked with twists and turbulence, with upside stunners, downside surprises and major news off the field.
For the Big 12, it began with Iowa State’s 24-21 win over Kansas State in Dublin, ended with BYU’s 24-21 win over Colorado in Boulder and featured a few inexplicable results. As always with the Big 12, it was endlessly entertaining.
Here’s our look at the best of the conference through the close of September.
Biggest on-field story: Success against the Power Four. The Big 12 concluded head-to-head competition against the ACC, Big Ten and SEC with an 8-6 record, which looks impressive but is even better when viewed on a relative basis: Only the SEC has more wins (10) in non-conference matchups against Power Four opponents. The Big 12 has secured a better winning percentage (.571) in this closely watched metric than the Big Ten and the ACC. That success should bolster its case for at-large berths to the College Football Playoff.
Best team: Texas Tech. We are basing this decision on the outcome of a single game, but what a game it was for the Red Raiders: their 34-10 win at Utah in the most anticipated Big 12 matchup of September. It appears all that NIL cash was spent wisely, for Texas Tech outplayed the Utes at the line of scrimmage — a concerning development for the rest of the conference.
Best game: ASU 27, Baylor 24. The Big 12 produced the expected number of close games across the opening weeks — the Sun Devils were involved in three of them — which made this a difficult choice. We selected the Week 4 slugfest in Waco because it was close throughout, featured 28 points in the fourth quarter and ended on a walk-off field goal. But feel free to swap this out for your personal favorite.
Best performance: Texas Tech backup QB Will Hammond. There is no tougher environment in the Big 12 than Rice-Eccles Stadium and no tougher defense than Utah’s — and Hammond, a redshirt freshman with limited experience, handled everything like a vet. He replaced injured starter Behren Morton early in the third quarter and sparked Texas Tech’s offense, completing 13-of-16 passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns as the Red Raiders pulled away for a gigantic victory.
Best player: ASU receiver Jordyn Tyson. The Colorado transfer isn’t the top receiver in the country, but he’s the best draft-eligible wideout — a potential top-10 pick and no-brainer All-American. Despite being the focus of every opposing defense, Tyson is tied for the lead nationally with seven touchdowns and tied for second in receptions (39). And if a how-did-he-do-that category existed, he’d be on top there, too.
Best coach: Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. The logistics of Iowa State’s season are what set Campbell apart to this point. Opening the season overseas (against Kansas State) was difficult. But the Cyclones managed to avoid stumbling the following week (South Dakota) and then beat Iowa to register one of the Big 12’s best non-conference wins of the season. And they walloped Arizona last weekend for their second consecutive 5-0 start.
Biggest surprise: Houston. We considered BYU for this category but opted against the Cougars because of their weak schedule. So the other Cougars are the choice after their first 4-0 start since 2016. In all candor, we expected a solid second year from coach Willie Fritz and Co. but assume few fans across the Big 12 footprint would have pegged Houston as a candidate to become this year’s ASU.
Biggest disappointment: Kansas State. A comfortable home win over UCF last weekend doesn’t change the state of affairs in Manhattan. From the loss to Iowa State in Dublin to the meltdown against Army to the loss at Arizona, the Wildcats (2-3) have looked nothing like the team we expected. Which is problematic, because the schedule only gets tougher.
Biggest off-field story: Oklahoma State fires Mike Gundy. The OSU and Big 12 institution entered the season on the Hot Seat after the 2024 implosion and was unable to steer the Cowboys out of the abyss. The 66-point loss at Oregon turned the temperature to scalding, and the seven-point loss to Tulsa sealed the dismissal of the best coach in school history. Gundy won at least 10 games on eight occasions but, in the end, paid dearly for not adapting to the new world order.
To the power rankings …
1. Texas Tech (4-0/1-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Houston (4 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: We haven’t ignored the possibility that the Red Raiders are at least two games better than everyone else and will run the table through the regular season, effectively securing an at-large berth to the CFP whether they win the Big 12 championship game or not. (Previous: 1)
2. Iowa State (5-0/2-0)
Result: beat Arizona 39-14
Next up: at Cincinnati (9 a.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: That said, our advanced computer modeling of the conference race suggests at least four teams will finish within one game of each other, with the Cyclones smack in the middle of it. The tiebreaker process could require massive computational power, as well. (Previous: 2)
3. Arizona State (4-1/2-1)
Result: beat TCU 27-24
Next up: idle
Comment: The Sun Devils have faced three Power Four opponents thus far: Mississippi State, Baylor and TCU. The scores, in order: 24-20 (loss), 27-24 (win) and 27-24 (win). Take your motion-sickness medication now, folks, because the next two months will be wild. (Previous: 3)
4. TCU (3-1/0-1)
Result: lost at ASU 27-24
Next up: vs. Colorado (4:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: No running game equals no chance on the road in the Big 12, at least against high-level opponents. (Previous: 4)
5. Utah (4-1/1-1)
Result: won at West Virginia 48-14
Next up: idle
Comment: Five games down for the Utes, and none of them have been decided by fewer than 24 points. That would be a sure sign of dominance, except that they were on the losing end of one. (Previous: 7)
6. Brigham Young (4-0/1-0)
Result: won at Colorado 24-21
Next up: vs. West Virginia (Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: There’s a growing possibility that freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier is one-fifth as good as half the BYU fans think he is. And if that’s the case, the Cougars could very well stay in the race through November. (Previous: 8)
7. Baylor (3-2/1-1)
Result: won at Oklahoma State 45-27
Next up: vs. Kansas State (9 a.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: As far as the Hotline is concerned, the Bears are 0-1 in conference play. Results against Oklahoma State don’t tell us anything about anyone. (Previous: 5)
8. Houston (4-0/1-0)
Result: won at Oregon State 27-24 (OT)
Next up: vs. Texas Tech (4 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: We strongly advise purchasing seats on the Houston bandwagon this week, because it’s about to get crowded quickly — and ticket prices will rise with demand. (Previous: 6)
9. Arizona (3-1/0-1)
Result: lost at Iowa State 39-14
Next up: vs. Oklahoma State (12 p.m. on TNT)
Comment: On the bright side: The Wildcats have completed the toughest assignment on their schedule. That’s not a knock on ASU, by the way. But bussing to familiar ground in Tempe isn’t comparable to a road game in Ames. (Previous: 9)
10. Cincinnati (3-1/1-0)
Result: won at Kansas 37-34
Next up: vs. Iowa State (9 a.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: An unexpected result in Lawrence has us recalibrating the Hot Seat reading in Cincinnati. Not sure the Bearcats can get to six wins, but a path to salvation seemingly exists for coach Scott Satterfield. (Previous: 13)
11. Kansas (3-2/1-1)
Result: lost to Cincinnati 37-34
Next up: at UCF (4:30 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: The loss to Cincinnati is either a sign of pending collapse or an example of the unpredictable results that surface each Saturday in the Big 12. Or both. (Previous: 10)
12. Kansas State (2-3/1-1)
Result: beat UCF 34-20
Next up: at Baylor (9 a.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: The Wildcats when Avery Johnson rushes for at least 40 yards: 2-0. The Wildcats when Avery Johnson rushes for fewer than 40 yards: 0-3. Sometimes, football is a simple game. (Previous: 15)
13. Colorado (2-3/0-2)
Result: lost to BYU 24-21
Next up: at TCU (4:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: We wonder how often, if ever, Deion Sanders has second-guessed himself for running off Jordyn Tyson in the spring of 2023. Because as luggage goes, Tyson is the best Louis Vuitton has to offer. (Previous: 11)
14. UCF (3-1/0-1)
Result: lost at Kansas State 34-20
Next up: vs. Kansas (4:30 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: No matter what happens, no matter how bad it gets this season, Scott Frost will always have a 25-point win over a six-time Super Bowl champ. (Previous: 12)
15. West Virginia (2-3/0-2)
Result: lost to Utah 48-14
Next up: at BYU (Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: It appears the Mountaineers are exactly who we thought they would be this season. The win over Pittsburgh? We can’t explain it. (Previous: 14)
16. Oklahoma State (1-3/0-1)
Result: lost to Baylor 45-27
Next up: at Arizona (12 p.m. on TNT)
Comment: The Cowboys don’t play West Virginia and they visit UCF, so an 0-9 conference record — which would be 0-18 with last season included — is absolutely doable. (Previous: 16)
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