Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 3-7 (yikes). Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
It’s a bit early in the season for must-win games, and it’s ridiculously early for must-win games within a conference that won’t exist for 10 months.
But Washington State and Oregon State are facing exactly that situation Saturday against San Diego State and Fresno State, respectively: The Pac-12 holdovers host the Pac-12 newcomers with multiple layers of implications in both matchups.
On an immediate level, the Cougars and Beavers must provide their fans and constituents some evidence that their season openers were not harbingers of long and painful seasons.
WSU struggled to repel Idaho in the debut for new coach Jimmy Rogers while OSU floundered against Cal in the first game of the second season of Trent Bray’s tenure. Neither played like a team worthy of the postseason. Both need victories this weekend to make the bowl math manageable.
On an extended timeline, the Cougars and Beavers are combating an increasingly daunting regional and national narrative:
— That they aren’t as competitive and committed as they were in the former Pac-12.
— That they don’t represent the top tier of teams outside the power conferences.
— That they aren’t the standard against which the incoming Pac-12 schools should be measured.
What would it say about states of affairs in Pullman and Corvallis if the teams lose at home Saturday to future conference peers that have modest expectations and retooled rosters? (The Bulldogs were picked fifth in the Mountain West preseason media poll, the Aztecs eighth.)
Here’s what it would say: The Cougars and Beavers have regressed more rapidly and more deeply than many might have expected 13 months ago, as the schools embarked on this two-year transition phase.
Nothing material is on the line for the Pac-12 holdovers this weekend, but the intangible stakes are high as all four teams (and Colorado State, Utah State, Boise State and Texas State) prepare to compete against each other in the rebuilt conference.
If the Cougars and Beavers lose Saturday, they will have ceded more than yards and points to their soon-to-be rivals. They will have lost narrative ground, as well.
The damage to their reputations — even when those reputations are recalibrated for the new era, the new conference and new resource challenges — would be significant.
Don’t be fooled by the calendar. There are two big games this weekend in the Pacific Northwest.
To the picks …
Games involving FCS teams not included
All times Pacific
Iowa (+3) at Iowa State
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: The Big Noon game has an appropriately low point total (41.5) that we wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot stalk of corn, but the betting line is intriguing. With three points allocated to the home team, the oddsmakers apparently believe the matchup would be even on a neutral field. That doesn’t feel right. We think the Cyclones are better. Pick: Iowa State
Fresno State (+3) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The Bulldogs possess a competitive advantage, having played two games compared to OSU’s one. Look for the Beavers to generate more energy and purpose than they mustered against Cal. But will the execution meet the moment? Pick: Fresno State
Oklahoma State (+28.5) at Oregon
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: This spread would have been unimaginable across most of the past two decades but feels right given the course of events in Stillwater and Eugene over the past 12 months. It won’t be close in the fourth quarter, but with a number that large, we always worry about the back-door cover. Pick: Oklahoma State
Arizona State (-6.5) at Mississippi State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: The line opened at 10 and has dropped substantially, in part because there’s evidence the Bulldogs are not as dreadful as they were last year. We wonder how ASU will handle being the road favorite in an SEC stadium — that’s not something anyone could have predicted 11 or 12 months ago. Humidity in Starkville at kickoff: 75 percent. Cowbell-induced bedlam for a ranked opponent that beat MSU last year: 100 percent. Pick: Mississippi State
Michigan (+5.5) at Oklahoma
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: For all the attention heaped upon Michigan freshman Bryce Underwood, Oklahoma’s John Mateer just might be the best quarterback on the field. As for the game itself, the Sooners are much better than Michigan on offense and comparable on defense, and those dynamics should result in a double-digit victory. Pick: Oklahoma
Georgia Southern (+28.5) at USC
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on FS1
Comment: Clay Helton returns to the Coliseum to face his former team, and it could turn ugly quickly based on Georgia Southern’s blowout loss last weekend at Fresno State — one of the most surprising results of Week 1. But that extra half-point gives us pause, for the Trojans would be vulnerable to the back-door cover up five touchdowns late. Pick: Georgia Southern
UCLA (-2.5) at UNLV
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on CBSSN
Comment: The money is flowing to UCLA, which opened as 1.5-point favorites. Clearly, the betting public believes the Bruins will make the necessary adjustments after their opening week no-show against Utah. We aren’t convinced. That said, UNLV’s defense has not impressed in wins over Idaho State and Sam Houston State. Pick: UCLA
Stanford (+18.5) at Brigham Young
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: It’s no stretch to call this the marquee game of Saturday night — the schedule is disappointingly light, folks. We don’t expect a riveting finish, but there’s an interesting subplot with BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier facing his former team. (He enrolled at Stanford last winter, then transferred after Troy Taylor was fired.) The Cardinal had two weeks to prepare following its opener at Hawaii. Pick: Stanford
San Diego State (+1.5) at Washington State
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on The CW
Comment: Our eyes are on WSU’s offensive line after the Cougars rushed for just three yards in their escape from Idaho. Meanwhile, the Aztecs walloped Stony Brook in their opener — an instructive result for our purposes given that Stony Brook and Idaho are comparable FCS programs. The similarities in opponents and disparities in performance indicate SDSU is further along in development than WSU. Pick: San Diego State
Straight-up winners: Iowa State, Fresno State, Oregon, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, BYU and San Diego State
Five-star special: Oklahoma. The only matchup of ranked teams in Week 2 could resemble a ranked-vs.-unranked blowout by the time it ends. The Sooners are significantly better than they were last year. The Wolverines are not.
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The post Week 2 picks against the spread: Oklahoma rolls, Arizona State struggles and two huge games for the Pac-12 holdovers first appeared on Sports360AZ.
